The Future of Unemployment
By Dougald • Feb 9th, 2009 • Category: FeaturesThe situation
What do you do when you find yourself with a lot more time and a lot less money on your hands than you’re used to? That may be the most important question of 2009.
Start with the numbers: worldwide, the UN estimates as many as 51 million people could become unemployed this year. Here in Britain, if the analysts are right, one million people who currently have jobs won’t do in twelve months’ time. What happens next for those people will shape the kind of society we live in, over the next decade and beyond.
I want to think about some of the ways this situation could play out. In particular, I’m interested in whether the things we’ve learned from social media over the last few years can play a role in lessening the hardship of this recession and shaping the world which comes out the other side.
Why come at the situation from this angle? First, because one of the biggest changes in a country like the UK since the last recession is that most people are networked by the internet and have experienced its potential for self-organising. Whether finding partners through online dating sites, organising birthday parties over Facebook, or Freecycling the contents of the garage – in all kinds of ways, people are using these technologies to connect with others and make things happen, both in the virtual and in the physical space.
Secondly, because a major crisis can create the conditions in which tools and approaches move quickly from the margins to the centre. The London tube bombings turned cameraphones from a teenage fad to a key part of the BBC’s newsgathering process. As Clay Shirky put it last week in his lecture at the LSE, when none of the old tools work, new ones get adopted fast.
My other reason for thinking about the recession from a social media perspective is that I’ve spent the last two years working on a web startup that’s building tools for organising your own education. More generally – from MySociety, to Social Innovation Camp, to funders like 4iP – what’s distinctive about the UK startup scene is the number of people focused on applying self-organising methods to public services and major social issues of one kind or another. If the internet does have an important role to play in finding our way through this global crisis, there are a lot of people here who have been thinking about questions like this for years.
Thinking about needs
Behind the statistics, every story of unemployment will be different; yet there are likely to be common themes. For most people, losing a job will trigger at least three sets of problems:
Practical & Financial – e.g. how do I pay the rent? how do I provide for my family on a much tighter budget? how can I renegotiate my debts? how can I avoid my house being repossessed – or, if I can’t, then what do I do next?
Emotional & Psychological – e.g. how do I face my friends? where do I get my sense of identity from, now I don’t have a job?
Directional – e.g. how do I find work – and what do I do with my time and energy, if I can’t?
These are acute versions of some fairly universal needs: for material security, personal wellbeing and meaningful activity. In other words, the needs of the unemployed aren’t so different, fundamentally, from those of the wider population. Indeed, during a recession, many of those who remain in work face urgent concerns on one or more of these fronts.
How things could play out: the dangers
With a huge wave of unemployment breaking on it, the welfare system is likely to be overwhelmed – at just the moment when it needs to be more responsive than under normal economic circumstances:
“The newly unemployed are not usually a focus of government policy because most will find work quickly. This is not true in a recession, when whole sectors slump and there is little call for previously valuable skills. Decisive government action now will prevent a temporary slide in employment becoming a permanent slump.”
Charles Leadbeater & others, ‘Attacking the Recession’, NESTA
In the early 1980s, millions of people who lost their jobs – or who left education and went straight on the dole – became stuck in long-term unemployment. A quarter of a century later, when official jobless figures had fallen to around a million, researchers estimated that another million people had passed from long-term unemployment on to Incapacity Benefit without working again. (This is not to assume that their benefit claims were not genuine, since long-term unemployment is associated with increased risk of various health problems.)
The nightmare for today’s politicians and policy-makers is that the recession we are living through ends up creating a new tranche of long-term unemployed, locked out of society for a generation. Whether or not that happens will largely be determined in the weeks and months ahead.
How things could play out: the possibilities
If the aim is to avoid unemployment hardening into social exclusion, perhaps part of the answer is a softening of the distinction between employment and unemployment? Or, to put it another way, does the fact that fewer of us will have “jobs” in future mean that more of us have to be “unemployed”, in the sense of having nothing to do and being unable to support ourselves?
One of the most striking tendencies of the internet has been just such a softening of previously hard distinctions. At its best, the result has been to open up a large and fruitful space in between the traditional roles. What eBay did for the space between the garage sale and the retail outlet, YouTube did for the home movie and the TV station. Which was more unthinkable, even a decade ago: that video shot by amateurs on mobile phones would lead TV news bulletins, or that an encyclopedia which anyone could edit would turn out to be anything other than a disaster?
If the idea of applying such blurring of distinctions to something as bread-and-butter as earning a living sounds like a technophile fantasy, consider one of the programmes that got the United States through the Great Depression. The Works Progress Administration took on millions of Americans between 1935 and 1943, with the aim of ensuring that heads of household who received relief money from the government also had something to do. It left an impressive legacy, from road networks and bridges, to its list of literary and artistic alumni (among them Saul Bellow, Mark Rothko and Jackson Pollock). All the same, it seems questionable how far WPA employment resembled job creation in the normal sense. “How many people does it take to do one WPA job?” ran the joke. “Three. One on his way to the bathroom, one on his way back from the bathroom, and one leaning on the shovel pretending to work.”
Where the aim of employment under normal circumstances is economic production, the main objective of the WPA was to take millions of men and women out of the soul-destroying situation of endless unemployment – whether their activities were particularly productive was a secondary concern. In other words, the programme blurred the line between employment and unemployment, and did so effectively enough that it is currently being suggested as a model for the British government to imitate.
The question is whether there are other ways, besides the creation of such quasi-jobs, that a space can be opened up between employment and unemployment – and whether social media, directly or indirectly, can contribute to this.
Some ideas for a way forward
What follows is not a road-map for how social media and collaborative culture can be applied to the recession, but a collection of ideas which have come out of conversations over the last few weeks.
(1) Tools for all, not just the unemployed
This is really a design principle, rather than a specific idea. If, as I’ve suggested, the needs of the unemployed tend to be acute versions of needs that apply to a broader range of people, it should be possible to design tools and services which are open to all, but have particular value to those with more time and less money. If, on the other hand, these are walled off as exclusively for the unemployed, this will reinforce social exclusion. Worse, it will stifle creativity by artificially limiting the range of possible interactions and connections.
(The value of this approach towards open access is something I learned first-hand over several years hanging out at Access Space in Sheffield, the UK’s longest-running internet learning centre. Everyone who uses the space is there because they walked in off the street, and as a (then) BBC journalist, I found myself learning to build my own website alongside guys who in some cases had been on the dole for much of their adult lives, and for whom the space offered a route to starting a business, getting a skilled job, or getting funding for their creative activities.)
(2) User-generated resource maps
At the level of practical and financial needs, being unemployed means losing access to the market as a source of resources. Freecycle and LiftShare have shown how useful the internet can be for connecting people to free resources – and creating social interactions in the real world along the way. An online platform for sharing information about all kinds of free or cheap resources could give people a way to help each other and themselves – and would be useful to anyone looking to reduce their cost of living.
(3) Free internet access for the unemployed?
The government is already preparing a national programme of free computers and broadband access for low income families with school-age children. This recognition of internet access as an essential service for learners should be extended to those who are out of work. Shouldn’t the government pick up the bill for your internet connection while you’re on the dole, to avoid pushing you over the digital divide?
(4) Collaborative spaces in the real world
If we want to soften the distinction between employment and unemployment, one of the most effect means would be the spread of real world spaces which reflect the collaborative values of social media. What I have in mind are places where learning, making, collaborating, hanging out and starting new projects happen alongside one another. Examples already exist:
- Media labs on the model of Access Space or the Brasilian Pontos de Cultura programme, which has applied this approach on a national scale
- Coworking spaces and social media cafes (like London’s Tuttle Club)
- Fab Labs for manufacturing, as already exist from Iceland to Afghanistan
- studio spaces like TenantSpin, the micro-TV station in Liverpool based in a flat in a towerblock – and like many other examples in the world of Community Media
Again, if these spaces are to work, access to them should be open, not restricted to the unemployed. (If, as some are predicting, we see the return of the three day week, the value of spaces like this open to all becomes even more obvious.) In order for this to work, such spaces would need to be organised with the understanding that hanging out can be as valuable as more visibly productive activities – both because of the resilience that comes from building social connections, and because of the potential for information sharing and the sparking of new projects. There would also be a need for incubator spaces for projects that emerge from these spaces and are ready to move to the next level.
(There is a rich – if unexpected – source of inspiration for this kind of collaborative space in the history of the 19th century mutual improvement societies, reading clubs and other self-organised, working class institutions. For example, the church halls and upstairs rooms of pubs where many of them met are still common enough – and would be worth exploring as possible venues for a group trying to set up such a space today.)
What’s next?
This has been a sketch of some ideas and some ways of thinking about how social media could engage with the recession. What is needed is both a broader conversation – and the kind of rapid experiments at putting ideas into practice which the startup world is good at. The good news is that this is already starting to happen, with events like the Hacking the Recession day which Mamading Ceesay is organising in London this Friday (13/2/09).
Dougald is
Email this author | All posts by Dougald
[...] @christinai check out @agit8: New blog post: The Future of Unemployment http://agit8.org.uk/?p=307 [...]
This is the conversation I’ve (and probably many other people working in councils…and most of us stressed us by how to survive in the recession) been waiting for on social media – great it’s started here. We have started working out how we engage with user-generated skillsharing type resources out there (your baby schoolofeverything.com amongst others) – is it signposting, brokering or seedfunding locally? Am very interested about the “tools for all” esp bringing together people in diff situations but with potential to mentor/support each other/work together…
Have added your blog to our http://www.netvibes.com/innovation
A very good post – as someone who works in the social media industry I’ve become increasingly wary of anyone who says social media is a panacea of our ills, but your piece is remarkably restrained and realistic, so bravo.
Two things to pick up on – firstly you’re not the only one to think about going back to mutualism as an economic model – many of the worst-affected banks (in fact, all of them with the exception of RBS) are former mutuals who got in over their heads, and remutualisation is being proposed as a way of reforming Northern Rock. Another experiment in mutualism in a typically capitalist market, MyFootballClub, is so far bearing up OK (though that may change as the novelty tails off). But any growth in mutuals during the recession needs to be accompanied with new legislation and undoing the ‘reforms’ of the past 20 years – something which is not yet forthcoming from the Government.
Secondly, I wonder if “social media” is the right term for all this. Media is about messages and communication, while a lot of this is more doing stuff. Even with things that we could call social media, the media bit may not be the best thing. For example, Wikipedia is aiming to produce an free encylopaedia for everyone, but the act of taking part also exposes you to various skills, not just basic literacy, but also forming a structured text, researching, how to cite sources and how to judge others claims for their accuracy. The fact a form of social media is produced could be regarded as a useful byproduct of this learning process (much like the WPA example you give above), rather than the goal itself.
I’ll leave it there – hopefully two more thoughts for you to chew over.
[...] check out @agit8: New blog post: The Future of Unemployment http://agit8.org.uk/?p=307 [...]
[...] » Features » The Future of Unemployment What do you do when you find yourself with a lot more time and a lot less money on your hands than you’re used to? That may be the most important question of 2009. [...]
Thanks for the comments. For anyone who’s interested in picking up this conversation elsewhere (including face-to-face), send me a direct message on Twitter – http://twitter.com/dougald
@Noel – it’s good to hear that what I’m talking about makes some sense from your side, as someone inside a council. I’m keen to get a clearer sense of how these ideas can connect to existing structures, so I hope we can discuss this further. I’ll be in touch.
@Chris – I really appreciate your comment. The situation’s too serious for the kind of “social media will solve all our ills” wishful thinking.
On your first point, I must find out more about mutualism as an economic model – who would be good to talk to about this? My thoughts about the mutual-improvement movement were inspired by Jonathan Rose’s ‘The Intellectual Life of the British Working Classes’, which is a fascinating book with lots of detail on the history of self-organised institutions and grassroots education. At a neighbourhood level, I think there’s a lot of possibilities for borrowing from that history, without venturing into official legal structures at all – as Mark Gibbens’ comments on my original blogpost suggest:
http://otherexcuses.blogspot.com/2009/01/social-media-vs-recession.html
Very interested in your second point, because I’ve been squinting at “social media” and wondering if there’s a better term. I’ve done a bit of work with Access Space under the label “collaborative cultures”, which in some ways gets closer to the essential character of what we’re talking about. (At the risk of disappearing into theory, I also like Ran Prieur’s attitude that you should always be varying the key terms you use, so as to be clear that they’re only an approximation.) Any suggestions for other terms that might work?
@Chris – Barcelona FC is a mutual owned my its members too…
“In June 2007, the number of socis (club members/owners) reached 156,366″
And pretty damn successful too…
“During the 2006-07 season, FC Barcelona was the third richest club in the world with a revenue of €291.1 million.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FC_Barcelona
@dougald – read Kevin Carson’s excellent blog at http://mutualist.blogspot.com/ particularly http://mutualist.blogspot.com/2005/12/studies-in-anarchist-theory-of.html
Smiles,
Josef.
PS @dougald you might also want to read http://www.neweconomics.org/gen/uploads/The%20Mutual%20State.pdf details here: http://www.neweconomics.org/gen/z_sys_publicationdetail.aspx?pid=77
And this site: http://www.mutuo.co.uk/
Enjoy!
@Joseph – thanks for the links. Carson’s ‘Industrial Policy: New Wine in Old Bottles’ is one of the most interesting things I’ve read this year – and it’s certainly lurking in the background of this article. I must check out some of his other writing. And I’ll have a look at the NEF pamphlet this afternoon. Thanks again!
[...] what might actually be useful are some thoughts on the future of unemployment. Somebody twittered this link – whoever it was – thanks. Start with the numbers: worldwide, the UN estimates as many as 51 [...]
I’ve been thinking that the kind of collaborative work that happens and grows in spaces like ‘Access Space’ has (in some cases) the potential to be income generating (which whilst being financially good for the the country and the person but also good for self esteem and progress towards a better life).
But because of either the real or perceived benefits and tax red-tape / problems this doesn’t happen, I personally know of thousands of pounds worth of activity that is lost this way.
I used to work for the job centre and I don’t know how people can earn small amounts. Because of paypal the world is used to micro payments but as far as I know there is no good easy way of combining a micro payment based income with benefits easily (Especially at the start because you don’t know how much people will demand what you have). We can help people develop their skills and collaborative together to produce brilliant stuff that makes us feel better but I think a push should be made to clarify / make this kind of earning easier so that creators can gain payment and all the psychological rewards of that .
I want to raise the issue of paid-work (the day job) versus work-for-a-purpose (often, but not always, for no pay).
Many of the people who I most respect consider that their day-job is a necessity but their “purposeful work for no pay” is far more important and valuable (to themselves and to others). I suggest that we might help the newly time-rich to find their own purposeful work through involvement in online communities of purpose.
I was once in a small group discussion where people were talking animatedly about their work. All seemed in agreement until one person commented about his boss not allowing him to follow through on a particular area of interest. Suddenly some previous odd comments he had made fell into place. Unlike others he was talking about work he was paid to do. He wasn’t talking about the work that was his passion, the purposeful work that he did in his own time. He didn’t have purposeful work of his own. He thought everyone was talking about day-jobs!
I think we should take a lead from the Open Source community (or at least, my understanding of it) i .e some people write code in their own time, others get hired by organisations (like the OU wanting new Moodle applications perhaps). The code that is written all becomes available to everyone. If it is good then it is valued. Money has nothing to do with it. Code is not “better” because someone was paid to write it. No-one feels ashamed that they contirbuted their code in their own time instead of as part of their paid work. Or at least that is how I understand it to be.
The newly time-rich can be like a pool of people on secondment available to work alongside people who are already doing purposeful work for no pay. I am not talking about 20th century volunteering. I am talking about the opportunity for first hand experience of work patterns that are emerging in 21st century: more flexibility; a blurring of boundaries between working from home and working at work; an emphasis on collaborative work; the creation of teams that form temporarily to achieve a given purpose. I know I could find purposeful, interesting and challenging work for people if I didn’t have to find money to pay them. I can’t be alone in that.
Maybe such involvement will only be a stop-gap for the newly-time-rich during a brief career break. Maybe it will be a new experience for them which will help them develop better skills for 21st century online collaboration. Maybe they will take their experience of emergent 21st century work patterns back into long established organisations and their structures for the
benefit of all. Maybe some people will decide against going back to full-time employment and will choose to develop a sustainable lifestyle that includes doing their work paid and unpaid – a bit like my understanding of Open Source development.
The newly time-rich are a national resource. Let’s get our act together to make use of them before their skills get rusty, their work habits slide, their self respect plummets and a huge opportunity for skill use and development is wasted.
[...] Hine re-formulated some of his propositions in the context of the weekend demonstrations in London last [...]